No, nobody thought he’d sail off the edge
The popular story says Columbus fought experts who believed the Earth was flat. Educated Europeans had known the Earth was round for centuries. The argument was about size. Portuguese experts in 1484–85 and a Castilian commission that met at Talavera rejected his plan because his distance to Asia was far too short (Randles, Imago Mundi, 1990) (Encyclopedia.com, Columbus’s search for support).
On the numbers, the experts were right. Columbus survived only because an unknown continent sat in the way. The lesson is not “experts are always wrong.” It is that a bold bet can be wrong in its details and still open something enormous.
Ships became a system
After 1492 the Atlantic became a scheduled route. Spain’s museum of the Carrera de Indias puts the ships sailing the Seville–Americas route between 1540 and 1650 at nearly 11,000, with 519 lost at sea (MUCAIN, Museum of the Carrera de Indias). Economic historian Angus Maddison cites an average of 58 sailings a year from Spain in the 16th century, rising from 33 a year in 1718–47 to 74 a year in 1748–78 (Maddison, AEI, 2005).
Capacity compounded. Maddison estimates Western Europe’s merchant fleet grew about 17-fold between 1470 and 1820 (Maddison, AEI, 2005).
Trade grew three times faster than the economy
Maddison estimates world trade grew about twentyfold between 1500 and 1820, roughly 0.96% a year, while world GDP grew about 0.32% a year (Maddison, AEI, 2005). World GDP rose from about $248 billion to $695 billion (1990 international dollars), and Western Europe’s income per person from about $771 to $1,204 (Maddison, AEI, 2005). About 1,700 tonnes of gold and 73,000 tonnes of silver came from the Americas (Maddison, AEI, 2005).
The gains were not shared evenly. Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson found that Atlantic trade drove Europe’s rise most strongly where institutions limited the crown, as in Britain and the Netherlands. Spain and Portugal had the bullion but gained less (Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson, American Economic Review, 2005). The new route rewarded whoever built the best institutions around it, not only whoever got there first.
The human cost was also enormous: conquest and the Atlantic slave trade were part of the same system. Any honest history includes that.
What the popular version gets wrong
Popular version Columbus’s critics thought the Earth was flat.
What the record shows It’s a myth. They accepted a round Earth and rejected his distance estimate, which was badly wrong (Randles, Imago Mundi, 1990).
Popular version The age of sail made Europe rich.
What the record shows Partly. The biggest winners were economies with institutions that limited royal power. Spain imported the most silver but grew less (Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson, American Economic Review, 2005).
What it means for today
Starship is designed as a fully reusable system to carry crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars (SpaceX, Starship page). If it works, it does for orbit what scheduled shipping did for the Atlantic: it turns rare, expensive expeditions into a routine route.
The World Economic Forum and McKinsey forecast a space economy of $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023 (World Economic Forum & McKinsey, 2024). History suggests the biggest value will come from what gets built around the route, not just from the trips themselves.
Companies we own that connect to this story (tickers only, never position sizes):
Sources
- Randles, Imago Mundi, 1990
- Encyclopedia.com, Columbus’s search for support
- Maddison, AEI, 2005
- Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson, American Economic Review, 2005
- MUCAIN, Museum of the Carrera de Indias
- World Economic Forum & McKinsey, 2024
- SpaceX, Starship page
Last reviewed: 22 Oct 2026. Historical figures are quoted as the sources publish them; where sources disagree, we say so.
Not investment advice. History is a lens, not a forecast. This page is opinion and education, researched and presented with the help of AI analyst personas, and may contain errors. The EarlyConviction team holds positions in SPCX, AMZN and may buy or sell at any time. Read the disclaimer.