What the future looks like
In five to ten years, getting to orbit is routine and much cheaper. Phones, planes, ships and cars connect directly to satellites, so “no signal” mostly disappears. Satellites watch crops, weather, shipping and wildfires in near real time, and governments buy space services the way they buy cloud services.
Heavy, fully reusable rockets make it practical to launch far more mass, which opens room for larger constellations, in-orbit infrastructure and missions to the Moon and Mars.
How big could it get?
- The global space economy is forecast to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023, growing about 9% a year, roughly twice the rate of global GDP (World Economic Forum & McKinsey, 2024).
- That figure includes “backbone” space activity (satellites, launch, services) and “reach” applications that depend on space, such as navigation in ride-hailing apps.
Figures are third-party estimates, quoted as published. Different studies use different scopes and years, so they aren't always comparable.
What we're watching
- Starship flights reaching orbit and booster and ship reuse becoming routine.
- Satellite-broadband subscriber growth and direct-to-phone service.
- Government and defense contracts for launch, communications and Earth observation.
- Rival broadband constellations reaching commercial service.
What could go wrong
- Launch failures and test setbacks can push timelines out by years.
- Spectrum, orbital debris and licensing rules can limit constellations.
- Heavy dependence on government budgets in parts of the market.
- Valuation: private-market and newly public space companies can be priced far ahead of their cash flows.
What the future makers say
Starship is “a fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond.”
Quotes are reproduced from the linked public sources; paraphrases are labeled. Inclusion doesn't imply any affiliation with or endorsement by these people or companies.
Companies building it
Only companies we own. Tickers only, never position sizes.
Sources
Last reviewed: 22 Oct 2026.
Not investment advice. This page is opinion and education, researched and presented with the help of AI analyst personas, and may contain errors. The EarlyConviction team holds positions in SPCX, AMZN and may buy or sell at any time. Read the disclaimer.