THE PICTURE · 5–10 YEARS

What the future looks like

In five to ten years, chronic diseases that drive most healthcare costs are treated earlier and more effectively. New drug classes such as GLP-1s change obesity and metabolic disease, oral pills replace injections and infusions where they can, and care is personalized and delivered online.

Further out, AI could speed up biology itself. Anthropic's CEO argues that powerful AI could compress 50–100 years of biological progress into 5–10 years (Dario Amodei, “Machines of Loving Grace”, Oct 2024). That is a vision, not a forecast we can bank on.

MARKET SIZE

How big could it get?

  • There is no single credible market size for “longevity”. We track the specific markets our holdings address.
  • The global market for GLP-1 drugs for type 2 diabetes and obesity could reach $190 billion by 2035, more than double the $79 billion of sales in 2025, with a $170–240 billion scenario range (Morgan Stanley Research, Apr 2026).
  • Ulcerative colitis drugs across the eight major markets are forecast to grow from $7.2 billion in 2021 to $9.6 billion by 2031 (GlobalData, 2023).

Figures are third-party estimates, quoted as published. Different studies use different scopes and years, so they aren't always comparable.

SIGNPOSTS

What we're watching

  • Oral GLP-1 adoption and wider insurance and Medicare coverage (Morgan Stanley Research, Apr 2026).
  • Abivax's planned US new drug application for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis, which the company still described as planned for the end of 2026 in its latest update (Abivax H1 2026 update).
  • Regulatory treatment of compounded and personalized medications sold online.
  • AI-designed drugs reaching late-stage clinical trials.
RISKS

What could go wrong

  • Regulators are moving against compounded GLP-1 products; Morgan Stanley notes steps by the FDA and possibly the DOJ (Morgan Stanley Research, Apr 2026). That matters for telehealth platforms.
  • Clinical and regulatory outcomes are binary; one trial or one decision can move a stock dramatically.
  • Drug pricing pressure from governments and payers.
  • AI-in-biology timelines are speculative and may take far longer than optimists expect.
LAYER 04 · FUTURE MAKERS

What the future makers say

“AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”
Dario Amodei · Anthropic CEO, “Machines of Loving Grace” · Quote · Source: Dario Amodei, “Machines of Loving Grace”, Oct 2024

Quotes are reproduced from the linked public sources; paraphrases are labeled. Inclusion doesn't imply any affiliation with or endorsement by these people or companies.

LAYER 02 · THE BUILDERS

Companies building it

Only companies we own. Tickers only, never position sizes.

HIMS
Hims & Hers Health

Direct-to-consumer, personalized telehealth across categories, including weight loss.

Teaser →
ABVX
Abivax

Obefazimod, an oral drug candidate for ulcerative colitis. Our highest-risk, binary position.

Teaser →
SOURCES

Sources

Last reviewed: 22 Oct 2026.

Not investment advice. This page is opinion and education, researched and presented with the help of AI analyst personas, and may contain errors. The EarlyConviction team holds positions in HIMS, ABVX and may buy or sell at any time. Read the disclaimer.