THE PICTURE · 5–10 YEARS

What the future looks like

In five to ten years, much of AI runs on the device in front of you or close to it. Cars, robots, glasses and PCs make split-second decisions locally, because they can't wait for a round trip to a distant data center, and private data can stay on the device.

The cloud still trains the biggest models, but inference spreads to billions of endpoints. Each one needs its own AI chip and plenty of fast memory.

MARKET SIZE

How big could it get?

  • Global spending on edge computing is about $261 billion in 2025, rising to about $380 billion by 2028, a 13.8% annual growth rate (IDC, 2025).
  • IDC notes that AI-accelerated processors are driving hardware spending early in the forecast, with demand from agentic AI at the edge.

Figures are third-party estimates, quoted as published. Different studies use different scopes and years, so they aren't always comparable.

SIGNPOSTS

What we're watching

  • AI PCs and desktop AI supercomputers reaching mainstream buyers.
  • Sales of AI glasses and other always-on assistants.
  • More capable in-car and in-robot computers.
  • Memory content per device (DRAM and storage), a key driver for memory makers.
RISKS

What could go wrong

  • Devices are cyclical and price-sensitive; consumer upgrade cycles can stall.
  • Smaller on-device models may stay much less capable than cloud models.
  • Fragmented hardware makes it hard for developers to build once and run everywhere.
  • Memory pricing is volatile through the cycle.
LAYER 04 · FUTURE MAKERS

What the future makers say

“Every software engineer, every engineer, every creative artist — everybody who uses computers today as a tool — will need an AI supercomputer.”
Jensen Huang · NVIDIA, CES 2025 keynote · Quote · Source: NVIDIA Blog, Jan 2025
“Personal devices like glasses … will become our primary computing devices.”
Mark Zuckerberg · Meta, “Personal Superintelligence” · Quote · Source: Meta, Jul 2025

Quotes are reproduced from the linked public sources; paraphrases are labeled. Inclusion doesn't imply any affiliation with or endorsement by these people or companies.

LAYER 02 · THE BUILDERS

Companies building it

Only companies we own. Tickers only, never position sizes.

SOURCES

Sources

Last reviewed: 22 Oct 2026.

Not investment advice. This page is opinion and education, researched and presented with the help of AI analyst personas, and may contain errors. The EarlyConviction team holds positions in NVDA, MU, META, TSLA and may buy or sell at any time. Read the disclaimer.